UGartner, uphando lweteknoloji yolwazi kunye nenkampani yokuhlalutya, yabonisa ukuba ngo-2024, ii-automakers ziya kuqhubeka nokusebenza nzima ukuze zihlangabezane neenguqu eziziswa yi-software kunye nokufakelwa kombane, ngaloo ndlela ingenisa inqanaba elitsha lezithuthi zombane.
I-oyile nombane zizuze ukulingana kweendleko ngokukhawuleza kunokuba bekulindelwe
Iindleko zebhetri ziyehla, kodwa iindleko zokuvelisa isithuthi sombane ziya kuwa ngokukhawuleza ngenxa yetekhnoloji entsha efana negigacasting.Ngenxa yoko, uGartner ulindele ukuba ngo-2027 iimoto zombane ziya kuba zingabizi kakhulu ukuvelisa kuneenjini zokutsha zangaphakathi ngenxa yobugcisa obutsha bokuvelisa kunye neendleko eziphantsi zebhetri.
Ngokuphathelele oku, uPedro Pacheco, usekela mongameli wophando eGartner, wathi: “Ii-OEMs ezintsha zinethemba lokuyichaza ngokutsha imeko yeshishini leemoto.Bazisa itekhnoloji entsha eyenza lula iindleko zemveliso, ezinje ngokwakhiwa kwemoto esembindini okanye i-die-casting edibeneyo, enceda ukunciphisa iindleko zokuvelisa.iindleko kunye nexesha lokudityaniswa, abenzi beemoto zemveli abanakukhetha ngaphandle kokwamkela ezi zinto zintsha ukuze baphile. "
"UTesla kunye nabanye bajonge imveliso ngendlela entsha," uPacheco uxelele I-Automotive News Europe ngaphambi kokukhutshwa kwengxelo.
Enye yezona zinto zintsha zidumileyo zikaTesla "kukudityaniswa kwe-die-casting," okubhekiselele ekulahleni uninzi lwemoto ibe sisiqwenga esinye, endaweni yokusebenzisa amanqaku amaninzi kunye nezinto zokuncamathelisa.I-Pacheco kunye nezinye iingcali zikholelwa ukuba uTesla uyinkokeli entsha ekunciphiseni iindleko zendibano kunye novulindlela kwi-die-casting edibeneyo.
Ukwamkelwa kweemoto zombane kuye kwacotha kwezinye iimarike ezinkulu, kubandakanya i-United States kunye neYurophu, ke iingcali zithi kubalulekile ukuba ii-automakers zazise iimodeli ezinexabiso eliphantsi.
I-Pacheco ibonise ukuba iteknoloji edibeneyo yokuphosa i-die-casting yodwa inokunciphisa iindleko zomzimba ezimhlophe "ubuncinci" i-20%, kunye nezinye iindleko ezincitshiswayo zinokufezekiswa ngokusebenzisa iipakethi zebhetri njengezinto zesakhiwo.
Iindleko zebhetri ziye zawa iminyaka, wathi, kodwa iindleko zendibano eziwayo "yinto engalindelekanga" eya kuzisa izithuthi zombane kwixabiso elilinganayo kunye neenjini zokutsha zangaphakathi ngokukhawuleza kunokuba kucingelwa.“Sifikelela kweli nqanaba liphezulu ngaphambi kokuba besilindele,” wongeze watsho.
Ngokukodwa, iqonga le-EV elizinikeleyo liya kunika abenzi beemoto inkululeko yokuyila imigca yokudityaniswa ukuze ihambelane neempawu zabo, kubandakanya oololiwe abancinci abancinci kunye nemigangatho ecaba yebhetri.
Ngokwahlukileyo, iiplatifti ezifanelekileyo "kwi-multi-powertrains" zinezithintelo ezithile, njengoko zifuna indawo yokubeka itanki yamafutha okanye injini / ukuhanjiswa.
Ngelixa oku kuthetha ukuba iimoto zombane zebhetri ziya kufezekisa ukulingana kweendleko kunye neenqwelo zenjini zokutsha zangaphakathi ngokukhawuleza kunokuba bekulindelwe ekuqaleni, kuya kwandisa kakhulu iindleko zokulungiswa kweebhetri zezithuthi zombane.
UGartner uqikelela ukuba ngo-2027, ixabiso eliqhelekileyo lokulungisa iingozi ezinzulu ezibandakanya imizimba yemoto yombane kunye neebhetri ziya kunyuka nge-30%.Ngoko ke, abanini banokutyekela ekukhetheni ukulahla isithuthi sombane esintlithekileyo njengoko iindleko zokulungisa zinokuba phezulu kunexabiso layo lokusindisa.Ngokunjalo, ngenxa yokuba ukulungiswa kweemoto kubiza kakhulu, iipremiyamu zeinshorensi yemoto nazo zisenokuba phezulu, zide zibangele ukuba iinkampani zeinshorensi zingavumi ukuhlawulelwa iimodeli ezithile.
Ukwehliswa ngokukhawuleza kweendleko zokuvelisa ii-BEVs akufuneki kufike ngeendleko eziphezulu zokulondolozwa, njengoko oku kunokubangela ukuhlehla kwabathengi kwixesha elide.Iindlela ezintsha zokuvelisa izithuthi zombane ngokupheleleyo kufuneka zihanjiswe kunye neenkqubo eziqinisekisa iindleko eziphantsi zokulondolozwa.
Imarike yemoto yombane ingena kwinqanaba "lokusinda kwezona zinto zilungileyo".
U-Pacheco uthe ukuba kwaye xa iindleko zokonga kwiimoto zombane ziguqulela kumaxabiso aphantsi okuthengisa kuxhomekeke kumenzi, kodwa ixabiso eliqhelekileyo leemoto zombane kunye neenjini zokutsha zangaphakathi kufuneka zifikelele kwi-parity ngo-2027. Kodwa kwakhona wachaza ukuba iinkampani zeemoto zombane ezifana I-BYD kunye noTesla banamandla okunciphisa amaxabiso ngenxa yokuba iindleko zabo ziphantsi ngokwaneleyo, ngoko ke ukuhla kwexabiso akuyi kubangela umonakalo omkhulu kwinzuzo yabo.
Ukongeza, uGartner usaqikelela ukukhula okuqinileyo kwiintengiso zezithuthi zombane, kunye nesiqingatha seemoto ezithengiswa kwi-2030 zizithuthi zombane ezicocekileyo.Kodwa xa kuthelekiswa "nokungxama kwegolide" kwabavelisi beemoto zombane bokuqala, imarike ingena kwixesha "lokusinda kwezona zinamandla".
I-Pacheco ichaze i-2024 njengonyaka wenguqu kwimarike yemoto yombane yaseYurophu, kunye neenkampani zaseTshayina ezifana ne-BYD kunye ne-MG zakha uthungelwano lwabo lokuthengisa kunye noluhlu lwasekhaya, ngelixa abenzi beemoto zendabuko ezifana ne-Renault kunye ne-Stellantis baya kuqalisa iimodeli eziphantsi kweendleko zendawo.
“Izinto ezininzi ezenzekayo ngoku zinokungabi nampembelelo kwintengiso, kodwa zilungiselela izinto ezinkulu,” utshilo.
Ngeli xesha, uninzi lwezithuthi zombane ezikumgangatho ophezulu ziye zazabalaza kunyaka ophelileyo, kubandakanywa nePolestar, eye yabona ixabiso lesabelo sayo lehla ngokukhawuleza ukususela ekudwelisweni kwayo, kunye noLucid, onqumle uqikelelo lwemveliso ye-2024 nge-90%.Ezinye iinkampani ezinengxaki zibandakanya uFisker, okwiingxoxo noNissan, kunye neGaohe, esandula ukuvezwa kukuvalwa kwemveliso.
U-Pacheco uthe, "Ngelo xesha, abaninzi abaqalayo baqokelelwa kwindawo yemoto yombane ngenkolelo yokuba banokwenza inzuzo elula-ukusuka kwi-automakers ukuya kwiinkampani zokutshaja iimoto zombane-kwaye abanye babo baxhomekeke kakhulu kwinkxaso-mali yangaphandle, eyabenza ngokukhethekileyo. basengozini kwimarike.Ifuthe lemingeni.”
U-Gartner uqikelela ukuba ngo-2027, i-15% yeenkampani zemoto zombane ezisekelwe kwiminyaka elishumi edlulileyo ziya kufunyanwa okanye zingabikho, ngakumbi ezo zixhomekeke kakhulu kwi-investment yangaphandle ukuqhubeka nokusebenza.Nangona kunjalo, "Oku akuthethi ukuba ishishini lezithuthi zombane liyehla, lingena nje kwinqanaba elitsha apho iinkampani ezineemveliso kunye neenkonzo ezingcono ziya kuphumelela kwezinye iinkampani."UPacheco uthe.
Ukongeza, ukwathe "amazwe amaninzi ayayeka inkuthazo enxulumene nezithuthi zombane, nto leyo eyenza ukuba imarike ibe ngumceli mngeni kubadlali abakhoyo."Nangona kunjalo, “singena kwisigaba esitsha apho iimoto zoMbane kuphela azinakuthengiswa ngenkuthazo/imvume okanye izibonelelo zokusingqongileyo.Ii-BEVs kufuneka zibe yimveliso egqwesileyo xa kuthelekiswa neenjini zokutsha zangaphakathi. ”
Ngelixa imarike ye-EV idibanisa, ukuthunyelwa kunye nokungena kuya kuqhubeka nokukhula.UGartner uqikelela ukuba ukuthunyelwa kwezithuthi zombane kuya kufikelela kwi-18.4 yezigidi zeeyunithi ngo-2024 kunye ne-20.6 yezigidi zeeyunithi ngo-2025.
Ixesha lokuposa: Mar-20-2024